What are your projections for 2023? The marketplace? Most secure jobs? Riskiest jobs? Unemployment? Recession? Your future? There are many guesses. After looking at 2022 and the issues we are facing, then looking at a lot of research from government, industry, the marketplace and future trends, here are my guesses:
Will there be a recession? That is the dominate question which will affect all other answers. History gives us some prospective. When the Federal Reserve puts its foot down on the economy by significantly raising interest rates within a short period of time, expect a downturn. Sometime the effects are short-lived, while other times we have a recession. My guess, we will have a mild recession of 1 to 3 quarters, unless a major unexpected event occurs. The average American recession in post-WWII is 10 months while a rebalancing takes place.
What about the unemployment rate? This Fall, the unemployment rate was 3.5%. The projections for 2023 is between 4.5% and 5%. The jobs lost are projected to be close to 1 million and will far exceed the jobs gained. The 1+% gain in unemployment looks to be matched by a decrease in the labor force participation, from 62.3% in the Fall of 2022, to about 61% late in 2023. However, different industries will be affected differently as the demand for products and services are moved by the economy.
Who will be hiring? At least 4 high-tech companies are reducing their labor force a combined 60,000 workers. When companies are asked about their hiring plans, most are looking to stabilize their workforce over the next year, with some internal rotation of jobs. New college graduate hiring is projected to increase over 2022, with most employers slightly increasing more experienced personnel later in the year. Only about 5% of employers plan to reduce their workforce. During recessions utilities, health care and consumer staples tend to do well.
Which jobs will be in jeopardy? As the economy weakens and businesses assess their goals for the year, industries that are most affected are: Real estate, construction, manufacturing and retail. Why? Because companies are hesitant to make major commitments and families cut back on purchases, except for the essentials. Individuals and families are hesitant to buy a new home with prices, interest rates and a declining economy working against them.
Which jobs will be in demand? Technology still leads the way, in spite of the lay-offs from large technology companies. The jobs most in demand are in specialized areas such as cloud computing, data science, artificial intelligence, big data and digital/social media marketing.
What should I do? Try not to make a major move right now. Avoid risk and embrace stability. Perform your current job at a high level so if there is a cut-back, it’s someone else. Get a certificate to improve or expand your skill sets. Suggest ideas to improve performance or impact revenue or profits.
Now is the time to demonstrate your worth and potential contribution to your employer.
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